Unemployment figures predicted to drop a lot more
The U.S. economy is finally peaking in its recovery from The Great Recession. It has been ten years of turmoil and economic sanctions to undo even a part of the economic damage that has been done to the economy. With the unemployment rate falling to 3.6% which is the lowest it has been in 50 years. The economy has been consistently adding jobs for 103 months now. While the wage gains is a meager 3.2% the heartening note to take from that figure is that most of these gains seem to be reaching those of lower incomes. There are however problems, as is protocol the survey and report are divided into business and household employment figures.
Normally these two figures should match, whereas these new ones do not. The fact that the businesses claimed to have added 263,000, jobs a sturdy figure in the last month. This figure does not match with the household figure which is 103,000 lesser than those who were working at that time. Given that both these numbers measure the same thing, it is not a good sign to see such a huge discrepancy in the comparison of the figures. The business figure gives one the official number of jobs and the second the official unemployment rate. This is particularly bad news as it can cause a lot of aspersions on the validity of the current unemployment rate. With half the country against Donald Trump, the analysts are worried that the figures will be called doctored by the government due to the upcoming elections.
These figures, however, is they are true do not take away the possibility of the economy falling into a recession any time soon. The economist hoped that the slowdown in the unemployment would act as a barrier against a future recession. If the unemployment rate was at a 4% or 5% the fact that there would be lesser people working would in itself prevent the economy from going into full-blown inflation. The fact that the economy has an inflation rate of just 2%, unemployment of just 3.6% and 150,000 to 200,000 jobs are being added per month which seems too good to be true and according to most economists, we can expect the scales to tip even with the slightest disturbance.